Adobe Predicts 33X Growth in GenAI Traffic on Amazon Prime Day (7/8-7/11)
Adobe's July 2025 Prime Day predictions include interesting data around the intersection of GenAI and online shopping.
Adobe is out this morning with their Amazon Prime Day prediction and what really drew my attention is they are predicting that during the Prime Day event, which runs 4 days this Summer from July 8-11, GenAI traffic sources will increase 3,200%. It’s growing from a small base, but it’s also accelerating which is the signal of exponential growth.
Refresher on Adobe’s Data
Adobe acquired ecommerce analytics platform Adobe in 2009 and Magento in 2018. Today those and other acquisitions operate under the Adobe Commerce brand. Inside that platform, Adobe touches 1 trillion visits to commerce sites, 100m SKUs across 18 major product categories. I like to call this observed preference data. Adobe augments this data with frequent surveys which give them stated preference data.
Adobe’s GenAI Prime Day predictions
Here’s what Adobe reports and predicts as it relates to GenAI usage:
A new trend this year is around generative AI-powered chat services and browsers. During the 2024 holiday shopping season, Adobe observed the first material surge in generative AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link). Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2024, traffic from generative AI sources increased by 1,300% compared to the prior year.
This trend continues to persist: During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects traffic from generative AI sources to increase by 3,200% YoY. And while AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details.
Survey data on GenAI commerce-oriented sage
They go on to cite very interesting data from a survey of n=5,000 consumers on the topic of details about their side:
In a recent Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, the shopping tasks respondents said they used generative AI for include:
o 55%: conducting research
o 47%: receiving product recommendations
o 43%: seeking deals
o 35%: finding unique products
o 35%: getting present ideas
o 33%: creating shopping lists
Of those who have used AI for shopping:
o 92% said it enhanced their experience
o 87% saying that they are more likely to use AI for larger or more complex purchases.
Adobe’s Prime Day Predictions
While we’re on the topic of Prime Day, Adobe predicts that this year US retailers will drive a record $23.8B in online spend from July 8 to 11. This represents a 28.4% y/y growth ($9.6B more than last year). To compare this to baseline, according to the USDC, ‘non store’ (aka online) is 6.1% y/y (which makes the July Prime Day period growth rate 4.6x the baseline).
The $9.6B is equivalent to 2 Black Fridays, in July. 🤯
What’s driving the growth?
According to Adobe, there are there are three
Discounts
Higher-ticket ‘trade up’
Early Back-to-school (BTS) shopping
Discount Details: Apparel leads the charge
According to Adobe:
Discounts are expected to remain at historically high levels—on par with the major deals consumers saw last year during the Prime Day event. Overall, discounts across U.S. retailers will be in the range of 10% to 24% (off listed price). Across categories, Adobe expects apparel to have the biggest deals at 24% (vs. 20% last year). Other categories with major discounts will include electronics at 22% (vs. 23%), televisions at 17% (vs. 16%), appliances at 16% (vs. 14%), toys at 15% (vs. 15%), furniture at 14% (vs. 16%), computers at 12% (vs. 11%), and sporting goods at 10% (vs. 11%).
Trading up…
Adobe predicts a 52% growth in spend across the most expensive goods - here are the details:
Consumers are expected to “trade up” to higher-ticket items, driven by strong discounts. The share of the most expensive goods is set to increase by 18% (compared to average levels year-to-date). In categories including electronics, the share of the most expensive goods is expected to rise by a significant 52%. The trend holds across sporting goods (up 32%), appliances (up 29%), furniture (up 28%), toys (up 18%), personal care (up 15%), and apparel (up 9%). Categories with a drop include home and garden (down 4%) and grocery (down 6%), as consumers embrace lower-priced products.
BTS early: Backpacks, lunchboxes for K-12, College kids hitting the headhpones, speakers and computers.
Adobe’s predictions for BTS:
From K-12 to higher education, shopping for essentials is expected to take place ahead of the school season, which generally begins in mid August to early September. Adobe expects a boost in online sales for backpacks & lunchboxes (up 225% compared to the daily average in June 2025), kid’s apparel (up 200%), and general school/office supplies (up 180%). Strong growth is also expected in twin/full mattresses & toppers (up 55%), bedroom/bathroom linens (up 49%), microwaves (up 75%), headphones & speakers (up 150%), and computers (up 140%)—essentials for many college students.