Hi Scot, long time reader here — thanks for sharing this thought experiment! The velocity is wild to see, they really blew past everyone in onboarding users, reaching 100 million users in 2 months, TikTok took 9 months to hit the same milestone, and eBay took years.
Just wanted to raise one modest caveat about the math: it assumes checkout functionality is universally available now, but I believe that’s unlikely— at the moment, it’s probably mostly available in the US/Canada + Europe (which accounts for <50% of global visits to ChatGPT according to First Page Sage, with India+Latam accounting for >30%), given payment infrastructure (e.g., Shopify + Stripe) are not yet broadly supported outside the US/Canada+Europe — then the implied GMV/volume numbers seem harder to reconcile.
Having said that, I remain a crazy strong believer in agentic commerce (and I’m building my startup marketplace on that bet). Thanks again for all your work, you are the GOAT!
Hi Scot, long time reader here — thanks for sharing this thought experiment! The velocity is wild to see, they really blew past everyone in onboarding users, reaching 100 million users in 2 months, TikTok took 9 months to hit the same milestone, and eBay took years.
Just wanted to raise one modest caveat about the math: it assumes checkout functionality is universally available now, but I believe that’s unlikely— at the moment, it’s probably mostly available in the US/Canada + Europe (which accounts for <50% of global visits to ChatGPT according to First Page Sage, with India+Latam accounting for >30%), given payment infrastructure (e.g., Shopify + Stripe) are not yet broadly supported outside the US/Canada+Europe — then the implied GMV/volume numbers seem harder to reconcile.
Having said that, I remain a crazy strong believer in agentic commerce (and I’m building my startup marketplace on that bet). Thanks again for all your work, you are the GOAT!